UNLV got crushed in this game on the road a year ago and now they are home and only under dogs by 8.5 points against a Mike Leach offense?? Looks to good to be true for Wash State backers right? Well I disagree and I'll tell you why - UNLV's defense looks like it has drastically improved thus far holding opponents to 20% conversions on third down. They held Minnesota to 13 points in regulation and it's not like Washington State is putting up big numbers yet despite having the talents of WR Marquess Wilson. The QB situation gets worse with Jeff Tuel likely not playing. They have a capable back up but there is a reason why Leach did not start him to begin with. It's evident Leach is not very happy about the depth at QB. When asked how his QB did at half time in the opener against BYU he replied "average" on national television. His no BS is not usually not a morale boost for a team that should have its work cut out for them in Vegas tonight.
UNLV's offense on the other side will look to play ball control and they should be able to do a good job of it as Washington State is allowing nearly 60% conversions on third down and they haven't played anyone special. UNLV will run the ball with junior Tim Cornett who has 100+ yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games including both games this year. Washington STate is allowing 4.6 ypc and they struggle to get to the QB with a 2.56% sack percentage last year. UNLV should stay in this game with special teams, ground and pound, and good defense on third down or bend but not break. Washington State is only averaging 2.2 ypc on the ground and did not score a point in the 2nd half a week ago. A short week won't help as they prepare for a trip to Vegas. UNLV has the advantage on special teams and thus far in the TO margin department as Washington STate is already -4 on the year and they allowed 4 TD's last year on kick offs so expect UNLV to have an advantage there. UNLV is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 Friday's and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a dog 3.5-10 points.
