Estrada has posted a 1.76 ERA in 4 career starts vs. the Pirates who are struggling big time today. I love his stat line going up against a Pirates team that has clearly struggled and he's backed by a bullpen that's red hot along with an offense that continues to be productive. The Brewers bullpen has a 2.04 ERA over their last 10 games while they are averaging over 5 runs per game. Estrada also has a 1.52 ERA over his last 5 starts and is averaging 9.34 K/9 with under 2 BB/9. I expect him to dominate in tonight's game and in a ball park as big as PNC Estrada won't be hurt by his tendency to give up a lot of flyballs.
On the flip side the Pirates are so desperate they are starting rookie McPherson and it's clear he won't be able to go deep into the game as he's been focusing on relief appearances lately. The Pirates have a 9.56 bullpen ERA over their last 5 games alone so that will be a key in tonight's game and it's a key I think the Brewers have an advantage on. McPherson also shouldn't be particularly hard to figure out as he has 2 pitches, fastball and a curveball.
Getting points with the way this team has played is just kind of crazy to me even against Felix. Felix has not been the same ever since his perfect game and with good reason. He's got an ERA of 9 over his last3 starts combined and he hasn't pitched well in games vs. the Orioles of late with many of their hot hitters finding success against him. Markakis, Davis, Jones and Weiters are a combined 33-91 off him and Mark Reynolds is 1-4 with a HR.
On the flip side Joe Saunders goes for the Orioles and he goes up against a Mariners team that is 26th in OPS vs. LHP. Saunders also has had plenty of success over his career vs. the Mariners who are struggling to hit right now and were 0-17 with runners in scoring position last night. Saunders has an ERA of 0.83 in his last 5 starts at Safeco.
