Braves -170 4.5* MLB POD
I know we are not getting great odds here with a tall favorites, but I believe it’s a very good chance of winning.  The Cardinals are not last years team and have not been that great on the road for most of the year and just 8-19 in their last 27 on the road vs. a winning team.  While the Braves were one of the best home teams and not to mention they have Kris Medlen on the hill today who has just been flat out dominant.
 
Medlin has held the Cards to a .498 OPS in 33 AB and has a 1.76 ERA at home while Kyle Lohse has allowed an OPS over .800 in 167 AB vs. the Braves. He has not pitched nearly as good on the road and against the Braves earlier this year gave up 5 ER in 5 innings with 9 hits.  The lineup today has just 88 AB but they have a .329 career average against him.  Lohse also not nearly as impressive as Medlen and has a 3.96 xFIP so put his ERA under 3 aside and look at his stats and even down the stretch he’s only lasted more than 6 innings twice in his last 7 starts and had a 3.89 ERA in 6 September starts.  That’s a huge problem because.
 
Atlanta has a major advantage in the bullpen ranked 2nd on the year 25-14 with a 2.76 ERA while the Cardinals were ranked 20th with a 3.90, but a 4.49 ERA out of their bullpen on the road is alarming.  Medlen’s stat of 5.7 HR/FB and a 85% LOB is ridiculous and should allow the Braves to improve to 6-1 over the Cardinals on the year as they seek revenge on the team that surpassed them in the Wild Card last year.

Where to find Freddy?