Both teams come off a bye and the only two reasons I don't have this as a play of the day is Arizona State has Oregon at home next week and they are laying significant road chalk. However, my formulas give this game a 73% ATS edge and after looking over this play I really like it.
The major reason I like it is Colorado is the worst offense in the PAC 12 and one of the worst in the country. They go up against Arizona State who is one of the best defenses in the country ranked 11th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense. Colorado will have major issues because they are 108th in ypc on the ground and could be without their only offensive weapon in RB Christian Powell who won't be 100%. Arizona State has been effective stopping the run anyway, but turning to the pass game is going to be a major issue for the Buffaloes. Arizona State is #1 in sack % and they are top 5 in the country in sacks and tackles for loss. Colorado is 119th in sacks allowed and are last in the league in scoring points. Colorado is 104th in TO margin per game and I think we could see a few here on Thursday night because of hte pressure Arizona State will get from DT Will Sutton who is playing like an All American right now.
The Sun Devils have really surprised me this year and we profited on them in their road win at California where they played extremely well. They also nearly pulled off a difficult win against Missouri out of the SEC and now winning at Colorado will not be a problem as Colorado is only converting 13% of their third downs at home.
