This is probably my favorite game all year and I feel most confident with it as Iowa State matches up extremely well with Kansas State. This is a pretty big rivalry with the teams separated by 350 miles and have a history of 95 meetings. For Iowa State players they have never beaten Kansas State. The last 4 match ups have been decided by 8, 1, 7, and 7 points with 3 of those 4 played at Kansas State and the 1 point loss at Iowa State. With a team full of veterans that were part of the team that shocked Oklahoma State at home last year, Iowa State has the ingredients for the upset as Kansas State's offense is not to hard to figure out.
Kansas State will runt he ball as they have ran the ball 71.67% of the time this year. Iowa State also will run the ball as they are ranked 43rd in running play % at 54.64%. This means the game is going to slow down quite a bit and Iowa State has arguably the two best linebackers in the Big 12 in Jake KNott and AJ Klein who lead a defense that's 29th in run defense form a yards per carry perspective and they have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses already this year. Kansas State is also very good at stopping the run, but they have yet to face a top 50 rushing offense. In last years match up Iowa State actually out gained Kansas State on the ground on the road and held Klein in check 26 carreis for 86 yards and 7-15 passing. However, 2 turnovers did not help their chances.
Kansas State gets by and wins games by not turning the ball over and limiting their penalties well Iowa State is of the same brand as they are 5th in fewest penalties. Iowa State just came off a game against TCU where they were +4 in turnover margin. I believe that will carry over into this game and with QB Jared Barnett taking over the offense he has limited the mistakes and he's made some big plays down field with two 50+ yard touchdowns a week ago.
3rd down offense and defense is a key stat especially in close games like this and I think Iowa State holds an advantage despite Kansas State being #1 in third down defense in the antion. For one they have not faced a top 50 3rd down defense all year long (53, 75, 105, and 101st ranked 3rd down defenses) and now they face Iowa State who is ranked 36th holding opponents to 35.7%. On the flip side Kansas State's defense on third down leaves a lot to be desired as they have allowed 43.46% conversions and they have faced offenses ranked 110th, 49th, 109th and 31st. Overall I just think the resume of Iowa State is more impressive considering who they played. The idea that Iowa State can't run is a bit over rated since they have faced 4 defenses that are in the top 50 and 3 of those in the top 25. Kansas State has had a ton of success against poor run defenses with 3 of the 4 being outside the top 100 and the 4th ranked 77th. You could make an argument that Iowa State would be favored if they beat Texas Tech. Iowa State had troubles because they could not defend the pass and that's something they won't have to worry about too much in this game since Kansas State rarely passes.
