I love this play tonight despite the Lions ability in the passing game which is one reason why I think we have a high total here. Guess what in Stafford's two games in Chicago he's averaged 5.2 and 5.5 yards per pass. That's a slow moving offense and the Bears have a group of sure tacklers. The Lions also don't pass nearly as much on the road as they do at home and even if they pass a ton I'm not concerned with this going over. Stafford threw 63 times a few years ago and still only managed 13 points.
Chicago's offense on the other hand should have its own issues in the red zone and overall. First of all they are not great at protecting their QB ranked 27th in sack %, Detroit just came off an excellent game from their defensive line last week with 10 tackles for loss and 3 sacks vs. the Eagles. The Lions will have to stop the run here because the Bears run the ball 49% at home and overall they are 27th in passing %. They go up against a Lions defense that is #1 in red zone defense and the Bears are already struggling in the red zone ranking 23rd.
The Bears defense is also in the top 10 in red zone defense and 3rd in third down defense and they only allow 21% conversions at home. Now the Lions are more of a threat but they are still one dimensional and are only converting 33.85% of their third downs themselves. Both offenses also have continued to be hurt by the penalties. I expect the under in this game as both QB's have not played very well this year and going up against a familiar opponent the same should continue as these teams know each other extremely well. I expect a lot of slow moving drives and a lot of field goals, but in the end Lovie Smith is 8-2 on MNF and they are 5-3 following a bye. Look for them to continue that trend with a win in a low scoring game.
