I love our odds with these three plays tonight. The Vikings defense have played very well this season and now their pass rush is starting to click as they had 7 sacks last game. The Bucs are a bit better protecting the QB, but they should still be under a little pressure as the Vikings can get a pass rush with 3 and 4 guys. Freeman has not shown he can beat coverage teams with 7 or 8 guys going back in coverage. I think TB can win this game, but I don't think it will be because they put up a ton of points.
On the other side the Bucs are so under rated. This team is the #1 in run defense allowing just 2.8 ypc on the road and 3.1 overall. The Vikings strength is running the ball as Ponder has struggled of late and lets be honest he really only has one weapon in Percy Harvin. The Vikings won't be able to fully take advantage of the Bucs most glaring weakness which is defending the pass. This run defense is the real deal led by McCoy as they have faced 4 top 10 rushing offenses.
TB had a terrible defensive performance in their last game giving up 35 points to Drew Brees but that was to be expected. Any time this defense has given up points they bounce back with a solid defensive effort: 10, 16, 10 and I expect them to do the same here tonight. The Vikings have benefited by an easy schedule and some of the key stats just don't translate well for them here today.
First they go up against a defense that's ranked in the top of the league in red zone defense and 3rd down defense as the Bucs are ranked 4th allowing just 36% TD's on red zone opportunities and they've faced 3 top 10 red zone offenses while their third down defense has allowed just 35% conversions and 34% on the road good for 8th best. Vikings on the other hand are 24th in third down defense and have allowed 44% conversions at home. In the red zone they have been worse allowing 47% ranked 12th. They should be able to contain Tampa however as they are only allowing 41% TD's at home. Tampa is 7th in TD%'s on offense and they've faced just as many good red zone defenses as the Vikings. I like Tampa's chances to come up with a shocking win as I think many are over hyping the Vikings who have a one dimensional offense that throws to Harvin and Rudolph in the red zone look for safety Baron to take away Rudolph who hasn't been playing as well as we see a lot of field goals tonight.
