Northwestern has struggled with no identity on offense as they are only averaging 274 yards per game over their last three facing some pretty good defense in Penn State Minnesota and Nebraska, but Iowa is ranked 27th in total defense and should give Northwestern fits too.
I think we are exaggerating last week's results which saw Iowa lost to Penn State big at home and Northwestern nearly upset Nebraska. Iowa flat out lost and struggled on defense, but that was to be expected considering Penn State came off a bye and Iowa just came off a huge win against Michigan State. Northwestern was out gained by more than 200 yards, but were lucky to be +3 in turnover margin against Nebraska to be in the game as Nebraska muffed two punts that Northwestern recovered. These are the small things that Northwestern does well. Special teams +turnover margin, and they don't beat themselves.
However, coming into this game Iowa is 27th in turnover margin and their special teams coverage is excellent so Northwestern will have to dominate on both sides to cover this spread and I don't see it happening even with Iowa losing 2 offensive line starters last week. First of all Iowa will get their key player Mark Weisman back as he got hurt early against Penn State. Also Northwestern has a banged up secondary missing 3 key players. This might finally be the game we see Iowa's QB James Vandenberg look like himself. Actually I'm betting on that's what we will see. Northwestern has been unable to sack QB's anyway so pressure wont' be an issue and Iowa has already played 5 top 30 pass defenses and now Northwestern is ranked 54th and they are beat up which should result in Iowa's ability to move the ball.
