My formulas have Ohio as a strong strong lean. My research and analysis have Ohio as a strong lean. The only reason this is not a bigger play is that the line movement is a bit funky and I'm puzzled by it, but I'm still going with Ohio based on 75% of my strategy telling me Ohio is a very strong play.
Lets make no mistake about it Bowling Green's defense is playing like its one of the best in the country. 8th in yards allowed, 16th vs. pass, 13th vs. run and 9th in scoring defense. Let's slow down a bit, because they have faced an average total offense ranked 81st. They have only played one balanced offense in Toledo ranked 22nd overall and they lost that game giving up 450+ yards in a 12 point road loss. Ohio statistically mirrors Toledo offensively in the fact that they are balanced ranked 53rd in passing and 19th in rushing. Toledo's Terrance Owens through for over 300 yards against Bowling Green at the glass bowl, and Tyler Tettleton is fully capable of doing the same. Bowling Green's defensive line is the strength of their defense, but they go up against an Ohio offensive line that features 3 seniors and is ranked 35th in sacked %, only allowing Tettleton to be sacked 2.61% of the time at home. I think Ohio will find balance in this game handing the ball off too, because Bowling Green has not been as effective on the road stopping the run allowing 4.37 yards per carry and the duo of Blankenship and Boykin at RB for Ohio is a good combo that has resulted in a 5.12 ypc average at home.
Now we spoke about why Ohio's offense can move the ball against Bowling Green, but we haven't spoke about Ohio's defense which is far better than Toledo's and I think we saw that in action last night. Toledo was ranked 108th in total defense and they held Bowling Green's offense which has nothing special to under 350 yards and 15 points. Ohio is ranked 37th in scoring defense and their one weakness against the pass that has resulted in allowing a lot of 3rd down conversions is improving. They have actually allowed just 35% conversions in back to back games and Bowling Green's offense relies more on the run as they are 83rd in passing offense. When they do go back to pass Ohio's front has done a good job at getting to the QB especially at home sacking the QB 9.27% of the time.
Overall, both teams are similar in a lot of ways, but Ohio is just far more balanced, they are playing on senior night with 19 seniors and are home which is a huge advantage not to mention they are 9-1 in their last 10 week day games. Tyler Tettleton is by far the better QB and maybe the best one that Bowling Green has faced all year. Tettleton has connected with 16 different receivers this year which to me tells just how good he is. He leads a team that's ranked 18th in third down conversions and that's by far the best that Bowling Green's top ranked defensive unit has faced. On average they have faced a third down conversion offense ranked 83rd including Toledo 39th who went 7-14 against them. Ohio will be able to move the chains, but we can't say the same for Bowling Green who are ranked 86th in third down conversions and convert a meager 26% on the road this year.
I think Ohio has played inconsistently at times which have led to some tighter games than expected but I like the way they played on defense over the last two games and I like their mind set going into this game. They are the better team at protecting their QB at home, getting to the QB, better running and passing game. They also are 8th in turnover margin to Bowling Green's 26th ranking and 46th in penalties per game while Bowling Green is among the worst in the country ranked 119th. I think Bowling Green has feasted on weak offenses that lacked balance and that has resulted in a top 10 ranking, but tonight they'll place an offense that can move the ball and protect their QB. I don't think Bowling Green will have the offense to pull the upset on senior night.
