Fl Atlantic is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games and now it looks like people are catching on and they are now favored for the first time since 2010 against an FBS team. One would think there is not good value on this play, but I think the fact that they are playing their best football right now is more of a reason to back them here tonight. Over their last 4 games they have averaged 30.5 ppg and they have topped 30 points 3 times. It is no coincidence that the new spread offense is starting to pay dividends toward the end of the season. QB Graham Wilbert has adapted and heâs been great completing 65.8% of his passes with just 3 interceptions. FAU, actually balances their offensive attack 50/50 while FIU has struggled against the pass and the run this year allowing 4.53 ypc on the road.
The strength of FIU is running the ball and theyâll do it 55% of the time, but they just are not that good at it and their best RB Kedrick Rhodes has not been 100%. Although heâs proven he can still be effective they are still 78th in rushing offense and only mange 3.56 ypc. FAU has been poor in stopping the run, but they have also showed up in other situations and have allowed just 3.46 ypc at home. This is a heated rivalry and FAU wants revenge from last years 41-7 loss. FIU does not possess the balance to win this game with QB Jake Medlock completing just 57% of his passes. FAU in conference play have limited opposing QBâs to just 49% completion percentage and a 109 pass efficiency rating and not to mention FIU has given up 30 sacks on the year.
Take out FAUâs two games vs. Georgia and Alabama both on the road, their stats are not so bad. FAU has been better on third down offense and defense and have only allowed opponents to convert 19% of the time at home while FIU has only converted 27% on the road, which carries over to the red zone. FAU has gotten to the red zone more and have allowed opponents to get their less. FIU has allowed opponents to convert red zone attempts into TDâs 72% of the time while FAU has been much more consistent holding opponents to 57% TDâs. They managed 6 points against Western Kentucky at home while FAU went on the road and put up 37 points in a win.
This is a tough game for Hawaii, traveling on an 8 hour flight on a short week, and I think it will show. Add in the fact that they just are not very good and you have the recipe for a blow out. Unless Air Force continues to have turnover issues that have cost them a better season. Hawaii though has been unable to force turnovers ranking 117th in takeaways and dead last in TO margin. Hawaii has also lost their road games by 39, 47, 38, 35, and 15. The game they lost by 15 was to Colorado State, a team Air Force beat by 21 points.
Hawaii is just not a good team ranked 99th allowing 5.0 ypc facing Air Force who is averaging over 400 yards rushing per home game. Hawaii can not keep pace like they may have been able to in years past their total offense is ranked 121st, and only 255 on the road. Air Force is solid vs. the pass and their weakness is against the run, but Hawaii has been unable to run averaging just 2.6 ypc which is why they are 117th in converting third downs while Air Force is ranked 6th and converts 63% of their third downs at home. They should dominate time of possession, win the turnover battle and hold Hawaii in check on senior night which will be the final home game for 23 seniors. Itâs also a big game for Air Force in the fact that they need a win to be bowl eligible and they face Fresno next week so they can not mess around. Donât expect many field goals as Hawaii has given up 88% TDâs when teams are in the red zone.
