I really love the Chiefs here and I think we are getting a ton of value here in a home dog. The Bengals did beat the Giants last week who have been playing poorly of late, but beating the defending Super Bowl Champions will get you tons of credit and the public is pouring in on the Bengals this week as road dogs. How could you back the Bengals on the road right now? Their defense has been terrible against the pass and the run. This will be the first game for the Chiefs since facing the Saints that they should be able to find balance as the Bengals are 31st in completion % defense and 27th in yards per carry defense and even worse when they are on the road.
If you take away the records and you purely look at the stats the Chiefs could easily be the better team. They have plenty of weapons, the better defense and they are at home. They have Brandon Flowers at CB who is playing at a high level and should be able to take AJ Green out of the game or at least slow him down to give his team a chance to win. The Bengals lack balance on offense too and it's a clear reason why they are 29th converting third downs with just 31% rate and 28% on the road. The Chiefs are 12th, and their 3rd down defense is ranked 9th and allow just 28% at home.
Chiefs main issues this year have been turnovers and scoring TD's as they are last in RZ TD%, but facing the Bengals should help as they are 26th in red zone defense while the Chiefs are 12th and allowing just 26% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games. I expect the Chiefs to hold the Bengals to field goals on possessions in the red zone. You can definitely see the Bengals struggling in this spot.
