The academies are vulnerable in bowl games typically when a team has extra time to prepare. I have been impressed with South Alabama in this double digit dog role beating Miss State to open the season with extra time to prepare. They also beat a very good San Diego State team 42-24 as a double digit dog.
The Sun Belt has gone 4-1 this bowl season compared with the Mountain West 3-3. South Alabama also played tight games with the two top teams in Sun Belt losing 21-28 against Troy, and 7-17 agaisnt Arkansas State.
Air Force has lost 4 of their last 5 bowl games. They lost against Wyoming as a 13.5 point favorite outright against New Mexico as a 14 point favorite outright, and to Hawaii as a 17 point favorite outright. 2 of those 3 games were at home.
Florida State +7 5.5% POD
Florida State has not really shown up in bowl games of late, but as an under dog they definitely do show up under Jimbo Fisher. Thatâs a role they havenât been in much, but 2-1 ATS this season as a dog. Florida State really progressed on both sides of the ball throughout this year. It was a challenge early for the defense who lost their defensive leader Derwyn James and having to face 5 top 40 offenses from a YPP perspective did not help. The defense however settled in led the nation in sacks led by senior Demarcus Walker there is plenty of talent on that side of the ball.
Michigan also has a very strong defensive unit ranked 2nd in yards per play allowed, but they faced a very average offensive strength of schedule. Their opponents were an average 78.5th yards per play on offense so itâs not a surprise why they were so dominant. Against Ohio State ranked 38th in yards per play offense they were very good, but late in the game they had issues stopping the run, and Ohio State is very much one dimensional. Florida State has a young, but growing QB in Deondre Francois. I have been extremely impressed with this kids ability to lead this team and not turn the ball over and the extra prep time really benefits this Florida State offense that has serious weapons that Michigan has not faced.
Francois can be a dual threat QB if he needs to be, but the one two punch of Dalvin Cook and Patrick should provide enough balance. Francois has some really good receivers that only got better as the season went on. Florida State played 4 top 30 defenses in their last 5 games and scored 34, 24, 45 and 31 points. I see this being a close game because of their ability to score points against good defenses. Dalvin Cook will be the key and Michiganâs run defense has shown vulnerabilities this year. Giving up more than 200 yards three times. They gave up 164 in their loss against Iowa.
The ACC is the stronger conference this year because of experience. They have gone 4-1 against the Big Ten while going 7-3 against the SEC. Florida State is 7 points away from being a 1 loss team.
