I think we have tremendous value here in the line of 10.5 points. I think there is a misconception about the MAC and I also feel Toledo had a stronger strength of schedule with their top three being against Arizona, Cincinnati, and Northern Illinois while Utah State faced Wisconsin, BYU, and LA Tech. Note they played Wisconsin when Wisconsin looked like a shell of who they were down the stretch. Both teams are in the top 30 in my RPI and Toledo had the stronger strength of schedule by 38 percentage points based on their opponent win% and their opp-opp win%.
Utah State's defense was excellent this year, but they never faced a balanced offense until they met LA Tech who put 41 points up on them. Aside from LA Tech you could argue Toledo will be the best offense this defense has faced all season. In fact Utah State faced only two top 50 offenses all year and now they'll have to faced a third. The other two put up 41 and 27 points respectfully. Toledo is led by a balanced attack with an excellent rushing attack with David Fluellen and QB Terrance Owens returning to the line up.
Toledo also has significant advantages in time of possession and turnover margin. Utah State is ranked 71st in takeaways and Toledo is ranked 27th. Toledo played one of its best games vs. a team similar to Utah State in Northern Illinois that's off to a bowl game. Toledo had Northern Illinois on the ropes before falling in the 4th quarter and I think we could see a similar effort from this team today. With time of possession comes the key of third down. Utah State is 22nd in third down defense, but a closer look we realize they faced an average opponent ranked 77th in converting third downs. Now they'll face Toledo's balance offense ranked 39th. Utah State's offense was ranked 36th, but they struggled vs. some of the better third down defenses and Toledo's defense which gives up chunks of yardage is better than many believe. They were ranked 57th in third down defense against an average opponent ranking 59th in converting third downs and they were among the best in the red zone keeping opponents out of the end zone more than 50% of the time on red zone attempts and even held opponents on the road to a 39% TD percentage.
