Oregon -7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Todd Graham in Tempe has done a great job so far with his only loss coming on the road at Missouri, but now heâs about to face something completely different going up against Oregon. The Ducks also are coming off a bye and in their last 4 games coming off a bye they are 4-0 SU & ATS outscoring opponents 199-79. Kelly will have this offense ready and Iâm sure some plays have been put in with the extra time to turn out the yards against this aggressive defense. To be honest Arizona Stateâs defense should be impressive holding opponents to 35% conversions on third downs. On average they have faced an offense that is ranked 111th. Meaning they havenât played any team capable of converting on third down. Oregon is 13th in the nation converting over 50% of their third downs. This is going to change the dynamic of the game dramatically.
Arizona State is also weak up front against the run. They have a smaller defensive line that Oregon should have a major advantage against. Okay Iâll give Arizona State credit they are ranked 22nd in run defense from a ypc aspect allowing 3.3 ypc but at home they allow 3.7 and the rushing offenses they faced were just not very good with none of them inside the top 50 (99th average rushing ypc) and Oregon is 10th with a 5.6 ypc and 6.5 ypc average on the road.
Okay so you feel Arizona State can go toe to toe offensively. Well Oregon has depth all over the place that Arizona State does not have in this type of a match up which is all about speed. Arizona State also doesnât have the receivers to burn Oregon deep which means Oregonâs pair of All American Corner backs will be able to play up and not allow easy quick passes which should trouble the Sun Devils offense which in reality has not been very good on third down to begin with considering who they have played. They have played third down defenses ranked 88, 83, 67, 56th, and 13th. Missouriâs was ranked 13th and they beat Arizona State and Oregon is 24th and really under rated. Arizona State is also weak on the offensive line 85th in sack % and Oregon has capable guys on the line to get to Kelly. Dion Jordan should have a big night along with Kiko Alonso. This is the first top 50 pass completion % defense that Arizona State has faced, because on average they have faced (97th ranked pass defense) while Oregon also has 17 interceptions already and is 28th in turnover margin.
Itâs no wonder Arizona Stateâs offense has clicked. I just think it will be too much for them here tonight with Oregon on extra rest and preparation. Their offense has been proven to be deadly off byes under Chip Kelly. There will be no look ahead with Colorado up next for Oregon and you best bet they will be trying to prove something on national TV after they were put below Florida in the BCS rankings. We heard the hype with Arizona earlier and Oregon put that flame out with a 49-0 win. I donât think it will be that big of a win, but look for Oregon to really finish this game with their depth and speed in the second half.
