We have line value in this game as Rice lost at Western Kentucky 46-14 and ATS by 13 points while Army won in the national spotlight as a double digit under dog over Temple beating the spread by 30 points. I was on Army last week as a top play, but now I am looking to fade this team. Army is 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win. While I think Army is going to a bowl game this year, I donât think they should be favored by more than a TD here against a Rice squad that has plenty of size.
Riceâs offense should be just fine this week, they have everyone on the offensive line on the two deep at 290lbs or more. They brought in a 380, and 376lb lineman over the last 2 recruiting classes and I look for them to use their advantage. I donât think they are as bad as they looked a week ago. Western Kentucky is the cream of the crop in Conference USA despite losing their star QB Brandon Doughty. Western Kentucky has plenty of talent returning 8 offensive starters.
Rice beat Army the last two years and are very familiar with the triple option. They return 16 starters overall, 9 on defense. The defense was awful last year, but they had lots of injuries and can only improve. They are familiar with stopping this defense as they like to take chances and get Army into 3rd and longs. They held Army to 4-15 on third and fourth downs last year and thatâs the big key once again this year if Rice wants to pull the upset.
Either way Army should not be a favorite they play a very slow tempo, while Rice is used to getting off nearly 80 plays per game so a back door cover is not out of question if Army is able to take the lead early. I also think itâs important to note that Army who beat Temple really struggled early in that game on defense. Temple also did not have the services of their best offensive player in RB Jahad Thomas who is electric. Army also missed 2 field goals
