Harvard has a similar match up against Arizona as Arizona plays a very similar style of basketball to New Mexico. New Mexico however just played better defense. In my winning play with Harvard in the first round I mentioned the vulnerabilities of New Mexico's 3 point defense. Well Arizona is worse allowing 36% from three point land. There are only 2 teams inside the top 100 in 3 point % offense in the PAC 12 so how bad is Arizona's defense really? Arizona has to contend with a Harvard team that's ranked in the top 25 for both 2 point and 3 point offense % so I think we are getting great value here with 10 points.
Harvard is a team riding a lot of confidence and I think playing at the same arena will definitely benefit them. Arizona meanwhile also likes to shoot the three probably a little too much and that can hurt a team with as much skill as Arizona. Harvard meanwhile is used to defending the perimeter and they have been pretty good at it holding opponents to 32.7% above the nation average. Arizona probably has a little too much confidence here and is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a win and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a win % greater than .600.
I love rematches in the NCAA Tournament. This game has the potential to be very special. The two met in the Maui Invitational where Rotnei Clarke threw up a prayer from 30 feet with a hand in his face to win it at the buzzer. That play and that moment has stuck in the heads of the Marquette players. Kind of hard to get away from it when it's the background of ESPN Watch App's commercial. Marquette will clearly have revenge on their mind and I think they have an advantage in this game as well.
Marquette is the better overall defense and they will take 73% of their shots from 2 point land because they just are not very good from the perimeter despite what their 3-3 showing to close out Davidson might say. Butler is a great defense, but they have not been nearly as dominating as years past and they face a Marquette team that's ranked 23rd overall and shot 57% form 2 point land in Hawaii earlier in the year. Marquette was a 4 point favorite then and now they are only 1.5 with revenge on their side. I'd say we got value all over with Marquette. I'll close out this analysis with the following statement from Marquette junior guard Vander Blue, "Him hitting a shot like that is devastating it haunts teams for a while. We've just been waiting for a chance to get them back."
