My algorithms like this one quite a bit with a 27-14 ATS prop over 7 years of data. After looking at this game in depth I also like it quite a bit. Lamar Jackson and Louisville are getting tremendous hype right now and that has to have Florida State extremely focused and there is no denying that they simply have more talent overall. I also think Florida State has been tested and have already overcome adversity in their game against Ole Miss which builds tremendous character on a team especially with a young QB like Deondre Francois, who has show a ton of poise for his experience and is certainly a better passer than Lamar Jackson.
Lamar Jackson is completing 59.7% of his passes. Watching the Syracuse game I can see why. He over throw guys plenty of times and there were also drops by some of his receivers. He only completed 54.7% of his passes a year ago and he faces a Florida State defense that has been a top 15 group year after year. Sure they got hit with a bad injury by losing Derwin James, but this is a team that has 2 senior starters and has plenty of depth. It’s not usual for a program like Florida State to be bringing back as many returners as they are with 17 which is just as many as Louisville.

On defense everyone will point to Lamar Jackson and how Florida State struggled in their bowl game against Greg Ward. People forget Florida State had a ton of guys missing for that bowl game that meant much more to Houston. Lamar Jackson was a runner last year he had 960 yards rushing. Florida State held him to 32 yards on 19 carries in their match up a year ago. I think Florida State is even stronger up front this year and they have already been tested. Louisville’s offense so far has seen Charlotte and Syracuse (who is breaking in a new defensive system).

We mentioned Jackson’s accuracy issues. The same is not true of Francois who is completing 69% of his passes. He faced an Ole Miss defense that is miles away from Syracuse/Charlotte, and he showed poise after being down big. Which is a typical worry with Florida State, but Jimbo Fisher is excellent at making adjustments and I expect them to possibly be down at halftime and come from behind in this one. The last two years he has outscored Louisville in the second half 70-24. At the end of the day Jackson is getting too much hype, I don’t like Louisville’s offense to be balanced against a very good defense. Meanwhile I think Florida State can run the ball here. They are getting two key offensive lineman back in Kareem Are, and/or Wilson Bell which could be the reason they haven’t looked as good running the ball. Also note that Francois is clearly a running threat himself. Louisville is very big in the front 7, but Everett Golson tore this group apart a year ago 372 yards passing 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s while Cook rushed for 163 on 22 carries. This Flordia State is highly motived to win this game and do it in convincing fashion.

Where to find Freddy?