I like the Blue Jays tonight even though they face the always dependable Andy Pettitte. Pettitte has not pitched since the 9th due to back spasms and the Blue Jays just got to face lefties in back to back games which should help them in this one. They will send 7 of their 9 hitters to the plate as a right handed pitcher. Pettitte as we know is not nearly as effective vs. righties. He has a 4.40 xFIP on the road vs. RH ers and Bautista and Davis in particular have made him pay as they are a combined 16-41 with 3 HR. I think the Jays will get their runs early in this one.
On the flip side Brandon Morrow has been fantastic vs. the Yankees at home allowing just 1 ER in his last 3 home starts over 21.2 IP. He will of course face a different Yankees line up but still has held them to a .235 average against him. Jays are 5-2 vs. the Yankees in Morrows last 7 starts and 18-6 in his last 24 overall on 4 days rest so he should put a quality start out there. The Blue Jays also have a considerable advantage in the bullpen so I'm confident they should build on yesterday's win.
Astros will send Lucas Harrell to the mound tonight on 5 days rest. He's got a 3.02 ERA in his last 7 home starts on 5 days rest including a 7 inning 1 ER performance vs. the Indians last year. He's been very solid at home overall, but those stats on 5 days rest could be even better if he didn't have to face the best NL offense in the Cardinals in 3 of those starts. Facing the Indians who are 23rd in OPS vs RHP should be much easier as they are only hitting .223 with 3.06 R/9 vs. RHP on the season. I think the day off and the extra rest for the Astros starting pitcher will help them and their bullpen.
Houston on the other hand has hit righties well .300 with 6.52 runs per 9 over their last 10 games combined. Bretty Myers is coming in on 4 days rest in this game and has not pitched well. His speed on his fast ball is down 3.2 mph on average as well as his other pitches across the board. It's led to him giving up 8 HR already on the season. I think we are getting value with Harrell because of his overall ERA, but it's a bit misleading because of his awful start vs. Oakland who is the hottest team in baseball. Take a look at his last 24 games at home and he posts a 2.97 ERA which is very much under the radar. The Indians are a bit banged up and have a .182 average over their last 5 vs. RHP.
