Georgia Tech struggles to stop the run, but so does Kentucky. I like Kentuckyâs running game a little bit more to be honest and there is definitely more value in a game that is a toss up. Kentucky obviously more time to prepare for a gimmick offense in the triple option which will only benefit them. I also like the fact that these triple option teams tend not to do so well as favorites in the bowl games.
Georgia Tech is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games. I think Kentucky has two of the best running backs in the country and I mentioned when I took Kentucky to end of the year over Louisville to end the season. Finally coach Stoops is running the ball and playing to his strengths. It was not always like that and now that he is running it over 60% of the time the offense is having more success. The QB looked extremely good because of the running success against Louisville.
LSU -2.5 BUY ½ 3% play at -125
LSU will be without Leonard Fournette, but itâs been that way the entire season. I think LSU will be able to run the ball with Guice in this game and they are highly motivated to beat a Heisman Trophy winner. Coach O will have this team pumped up in this one in my opinion. Louisville showed 2 weaknesses down the stretch.
Their offense struggled when they were man handled up front. LSU has the guy in the front 7 to give Lamar Jackson issues and force turnovers. There is no doubt about that. We saw what 5* Ed Oliver of Houston was able to do. Well LSU has a bevy of talent in the front 7, but thatâs not the main reason I like LSU here.
Louisvilleâs run defense is top 10 statistically, but when you take a stronger look you can understand why. Their defense which is ranked 4th in yards per play allowed played a lot of bad offenses this year. An average 85.67 ypp offensive rank which is surprising playing in the ACC this year. Whatâs even more shocking is the fact that they faced 6 rushing offenses that were not ranked in the top 100. They faced an average rushing offense ranked 89th. Now they will face #4. I think we are getting value here without Fournette. Guice is a beat and was having a better season anyway. Now that LSU doesnât have to force the ball to Fournette I think we will see this offense look even better than it did down the stretch. LSU also has a couple of 5 star receivers on the outside so Louisville cannot stack the box in this one.
