Really hard to pass up on the value we are getting with the Cardinals on Saturday. Adam Wainwright has dominated the Brewers in his career and has always been a good pitcher during day games (2.84 ERA last 3 years). He had a complete game shutout at home vs. the Brewers and over his last 4 starts at Miller Park he's only given up 4 ER in 28 innings. He's held the Brewers to a .630 OPS in 254 AB. Gallardo has pitched well of late and that's why we are getting the value we are. A closer look reveals that he's done so against weak offense as the Giants, Padres, and Pirates don't exactly scream offense. He's really struggled vs. the Cardinals in his career. In fact the Cardinals are 13-3 when he starts games and he's posted a 7.20 ERA in his last 10 starts vs. them. Cardinal hitters have a .312 average and a .950 OPS in 154 AB with 10 HR.
The Pirates were hitting on the road but now that they are back at home in their pitcher friendly park things are different as we saw last night. The Nationals bullpen has pitching up to their pre season expectations now posting a 2.25 ERA over their last 10 games and they have an ace on the mound in Stephen Strasburg who has 27 strike outs in 2 career starts vs. the Pirates. The line is low at -133 at most places which just tells me the oddsmakers are expecting the Nationals offense to continue to struggle. Don't sleep on the Pirates starter today. Locke has 13 innings of scoreless baseball over his last two starts vs. the Cardinals and Phillies. The Nationals have a .196 average on the season against LHP and are 30th with a .580 OPS vs. LHP. Pirates are also backed by an excellent bullpen 1.97 ERA at home and the under is 34-15-2 in their last 51 games as a home under dog.
