I think we are getting a ton of value here on the total which moved down from 9 total runs to 8.5. The reason is Vance Worley has struggled posting a 7.22 ERA on the season, but if you take out his 2 poor starts he is posting a 3.91 ERA. The Red Sox are in a little bit of a slump right now scoring just 7 runs in their last 4 games combined and Worley had a gem in 2011, his only start vs. the Red Sox 7 innings 1 ER. He's on an extra day of rest after throwing just 76 pitches. Meanwhile he's backed by one of the top bullpens as the Twins pen posts a 2.56 ERA overall and 2.93 ERA on the road.
The Red Sox will pitch their ace in Clay Bucholz who has a 1.17 ERA in 4 starts at home this year. That should continue on Monday facing the Twins who are 25th with a .681 OPS on the year vs. RHP. Bucholz has given up just 2 ER in three home starts in his career against the Twins and I expect another similar performance. The under is 33-16-4 in his last 53 starts following a quality start in his last start. While the Twins are 18-7-1 in favor of the under in their last 26 vs. a RH starter.
Based on the total of 6 I think it's easy to say we can expect a pitching duel tonight. Both Bumgarner and Cliff Lee have excellent numbers against each other and good home/away splits. This game will most likely come down to the bullpens and that's where the Giants have a big advantage. The Giants bullpen has a 2.09 ERA at home compared with the Phillies 5.02 on the road and 5.28 over their last 10 games. The home team will also have the advantage hitting in the bottom of the inning. I expect the Giants to jump on Lee early and then win in a close game.
