I think there is great value here with the Mets on Saturday with Jonathan Niese on the mound. Niese has struggled this year, but I believe he will start putting it all together. He still has not been as bad the numbers show when you take into consideration how bad he was against the Braves who with all due respect are 4th in OPS vs. LHP. Today he gets to face the Pirates who are 26th in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 2.74 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road. Niese has a 2.08 ERA at home this year and over the last three years it's evident he pitches better at home and better during day games. His biggest struggles this year are getting guys to chase outside the zone compared to years passed and it's resulted in more walks than he's used to. Facing the Pirates who he has a 1.93 ERA in 3 career starts should help as they are 24th in BB's vs. LHP and 22nd in in plate discipline as they'll chase a lot outside the zone which should benefit Niese big time! He's also 12-2 in his last 14 Saturday starts.
On the other side of the mound we have Francisco Liriano making his first start. He's looked good in the minors but stepping up to the big leagues is a different story. In 2011 and 2012 he struggled with control walking more than 5 guys per 9. I have a hard time seeing that much has changed and that's a perfect match up for Mets hitters who are 6th in BB's vs. LHP and 5th in plate dicipline vs. LHP. Mets are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. the Pirates, and 16-7 in the last 23 times the oddsmakers have listed them as favorites. Pirates are also just 36-75 in their last 111 road games vs. a LH starter.
