I am going against the line movement today I think there has been significant line movement to find value in these lines right now. The total has been set 201-205 all series long and though I've played the under I have been nervous at times because both teams like to shoot early in the shot clock. Now that the total is at 197 and both teams are on shorter rest I think the defenses will suffer.
I like the Warriors because they hung in there last game despite the Spurs having there best shooting % game and the Warriors having their worst shooting % performance. At one point they were down 1 late in the 4th quarter and now I see nearly a 6 point swing in the spread because of 1 game? Steph Curry will play and will have the same type of impact so I'm not worried about that. The Warriors win with defense and they haven't lost 2 in a row at home all season long and I don't expect it to happen now. The Spurs will suffer form the energy they expended in the last game. They are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 on 1 days rest and just 2-8 ATS after scoring 100+ points in their last 10 while the Warriors are 13-3 ATS following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after their opponent scored 100+ in previous game. Take the Warriors and the over here today.
