Vanderbilt +8 4.4% play[/]
This is far too many points when you look at the fact that Vanderbilt has a very good defense. It did not look very good a week ago against Georgia Tech, but that is to be expected. I donât think Vanderbilt has faced the triple option and I am almost positive Derek Masonâs experience with it is extremely limited so Iâm not surprised by the struggles they had. With that said this line is inflated because of that game. I wonât disagree that Vanderbiltâs offense has been very bad, but going up against a Conference USA opponent should help that. Vanderbilt lost this game last year but outgained Western Kentucky 385 to 246. Western Kentucky lost their star QB Brandon Doughty, and 8 defensive starters.
Western Kentucky has had a very easy schedule outside of Alabama. They played pretty well against the Crimson Tide, but mainly because Alabama was looking ahead to the Ole Miss game. Last week Western Kentucky was out gained by Miami Ohio. The SEC is 7-1 SU, and 7-0-1 ATS as a dog against Conference USA opponents. Vanderbilt 7-0 ATS themselves vs. the CUSA while Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the SEC.
Another key factor to consider in this game is the fact that both teams are slowing the game down considerably vs. last year. Vanderbilt 97th in pace -8 plays per game, and Western Kentucky is 106th at -8 plays per game. 8 points to a solid defense is too many. Some of you may think I am crazy calling Vanderbilt a solid defense, but thatâs what they are led by Zach Cunningham and a plethora or returning starters from last year which held this team to 246 yards and 14 points. Western Kentucky has some offensive weapons at WR, and Mike White has been good, but this Vanderbilt defense has been very good vs. the pass. They gave up just 55% completion rate, and their yards allowed are skewed because of the Middle Tennessee game where they threw the ball 65 times. Vanderbilt vs. a one dimension offense last year allowed opponents to score just 15.7 ppg. Thatâs exactly what Western Kentucky is this year. They have 256 total rushing yards on the season and ironically had their best rushing game vs. Alabama which just proves how disinterested the Tide were. They average 2.94 ypc, and their strategy falls into the strength of Vanderbiltâs defense. This is a must win for Derek Mason. The strength of schedule has been tough to start and I think this is a game decided by a field goal and I think Vanderbilt has an excellent shot at winning.
