In my opion this is a complete pitching mismatch. Ubaldo Jimenez has had a nice little run here of late, but he's still got a 4.91 ERA during the day and he's still walking over 4.5 batters per 9 innings. Jiminez has followed his trend of pitching well in June after struggling early. Over the last 3 years he had a 3.16 ERA during the month of June followed by a 5.63 ERA during July. I see that trend continuing with his first start in July coming today against the Royals who have scored 31 runs in their last 5 games alone. Jiminez is also on just 4 days rest where he has a 4.70 ERA this year and he goes up against a superior pitcher in Shields who is on an extra day of rest.
Shields is on 5 days rest where he posts a 2.94 ERA in 7 starts this year. He's held the Indians hitters to a .211 average and .647 OPS in 166 AB and has a 3.00 ERA over the last 3 years against them. Shields is also backed by a far superior bullpen posting a 2.53 ERA at home compared with the Indians 3.80 on the road and they are more than 1 run better overall. KC is also #2 in day ERA with a 3.29 and a 16-13 record. The Indians are just 19-42 in their last 61 road games vs. a RH starter. I expect a close game early, but for the Royals to get a couple of clutch hits today off Jimenez.
A ton of value here in my opinion when you consider how hot the Dodgers are right now. It seems like they have everyone hitting their season stride and with Capuano on the mound on 5 days rest they should continue. The Dodgers are 11-5 with Cap on 5 days rest and the Rockies bats have struggled until last night, but they have struggled mightily vs. LHP for a while now especially without the help of Troy Tulowitski as they have gone 20-43 in their last 63 games vs. a LH starter. They will start Jhoulys Chacin on the mound who has been red hot, but it's been against struggling offenses in the Nationals, Phillies and Giants. Now facing the Dodgers who are #2 over the last 7 days in OPS and are scoring over 5.5 runs per 9 and a .330 average in their last 10 games. Chacin has also struggled against the Dodgers who have a .330 average and a .948 OPS against him. In his last 3 starts against them he has a 2.36 WHIP, and an ERA just over 9.
