I see tremendous value here in the Braves who are 43-17 in their last 60 home vs. a RH starter. The Braves are beat up in their out field, but they still have a few quality guys left. Meanwhile Homer Bailey, I think will still be suffering from a hang over after he threw his no hitter. This time he has to go on 4 days rest and on the road and a day start which makes it less than 4 days in reality. He's got a 4.61 ERA on the road, 5.03 ERA day, and on 4 days rest he has a 5.33 ERA this year which is not shocking for a power pitcher like Bailey. In his 4 road starts on 4 days rest it gets worse as he posts a 8.14 ERA.

The Braves will send Matt Minor to the hill and he has a 3.61 ERA at home and a 2.92 ERA. Unlike Bailey he's thrived on 4 days rest with a 2.93 ERA and 8 of 10 quality starts. Minor will face the Reds who have struggled to hit lefty's on the road scoring just 2.80 runs per 9 on the year vs. LHP. Over their last 10 they are hitting just .190 while scoring 1.16 runs per 9. Home/away splits look good as Atlanta is +2.07 runs and +1.44 better in bullpen ERA. Bailey is also 18-37 in his last 55 starts vs. a team with a winning record and the Braves clearly know how to win at home.

Where to find Freddy?