I think we have good value here with Kyle Lohse on the mound facing the Diamondbacks. He's got a 3.16 ERA on the road after a slow start while the Diamondbacks have not been tearing the cover off the ball at home this year and are only scoring 1.95 runs per 9 vs. RHP in their last 5 games. Randal Delgado meanwhile is getting better with each start and faces a Brewers team that has really struggled on the road going 15-29 this year. Delgado has impressive raw stats with a 7.64 K/9 and a 1.09 BB/9 ratio. He's been unlucky with a .373 BABIP, but I expect him to pitch extremely well tonight against a bad team that won't have Braun, Ramirez or Hart three of the Brewers best hitters.
Both bullpens have been solid with a 3.15 ERA home and away. If you take all the relievers and look at their last 3 appearances and combine them both are below a 2.55 ERA which means they are pitching well currently. Arizona gets a lot of high totals and this is just another one, but the offense has not bee in this ball park this year. The total has gone under 43-20-4 in the last 67 home games and the Brewers are 12-0 on the under when Lohse pitches against a winning team.
There is just too much value here to pass this up. Miami's offense has scored 14 runs in their last 2 games against RH starters and they face another one on Saturday as Dan Haren returns to the mound while posting a 6.00 ERA. Washington is 4-12 in their last 16 road games vs. a RH starter and 6-15 overall as a road dog. Miami has won 42 of their last 62 home vs. the Nationals and they have their ace on the mound. Jose Fernandez should pitch a gem tonight as he has a 1.47 ERA at home this year and faces a Nationals team scoring just 3.41 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road.
