King Felix has been red hot and this is excellent value considering the Red Sox bats have been a little cold lately against RHP - just 3.54 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Felix has a 2.25 ERA on the road this year and he comes into this game on 5 days rest where he posts a 1.81 ERA on the year and a 0.79 ERA in 5 road starts. I just can't fade Felix here especially with Dempster on the mound.
Dempster will be on 4 days rest and that's where the Mariners killed him earlier in the year with 4 ER over just 3.1 IP. The Mariners have a .794 ops against him in 115 AB. Dempster has had trouble with control and giving up the long ball. The Pirates are 12th in OPS vs. RHP and are 5th in HR. I'm liking the Mariners chances here to spoil a sweep and for Dempster to struggle.
How can you fade the Pirates now? They are 23-6 in their last 29 as a home favorite and their offense is playing like a gritty championship contender. They battled back constantly last night and finally gritted their way to a victory. I believe the same will happen tonight. Charlie Morton has always been solid at home and posts a 3.17 ERA against the Cardinals at PNC. Meanwhile Joe Kelly is making just his 5th start and has a 6.43 ERA over 14 IP vs. the Pirates. Morton won't need much help if he can get past the 5th where the Pirates bullpen can take over with their 2.07 ERA at home. Cards bats continue to struggle just .193 last 10 vs. RHP and they are clearly not the same without Yadier Molina.
