This is tremendous line value as I had BYU at -7.5. I like the veteran led squad from BYU returning home and this is a must win game. Nobody has had a more challenging schedule than BYU having played Arizona, Utah, UCLA, and West Virginia to start the season. Toledo comes into the year looking like the MAC favorites after the first few weeks, but they are about to enter into a completely different game than their first three. I understand they are coming off a bye here, and BYU is on short rest, but if there is a team that can handle it that would be BYU. BYU has a team of mostly grown men not 18 and 19 year olds and they know how critical this game is Friday night expect a well played game.

Toledo surely has a dynamic offense, but I don't think their QB Logan Woodside is as good as he has looked so far. I expect this BYU defense to pick him off a couple of times and if they turn to the running game like they have the majority of the time this year (63%), they will struggle. BYU yearly has one of the best run defenses and that has no changed this year which is impressive considering they have faced 3 Top 60 rushing offenses and have yet to give up more than 170 yards in a game. They definitely have to keep Kareem Hunt in check in this one, but I think their offense is the reason they will cover the 3 points I'm betting on.

Toledo has a lot of skill players, and their defense has looked great, but going on the road against an experienced team when you have a completely new defensive line, and many players in the secondary. Their wins against Arkansas Sate and Fresno don't sound bad, but both of those teams are not in the top 100 on offense or defense yards per play allowed. Their other opponent was Maine at home who is now 0-3 on the year. BYU is just clearly the more desperate team and I thought their offense really looked good against a very good defensive West Virginia team. Keep in mind BYU is breaking in a more pro styled offense, and that sets them up well in this match up.