This is an interesting battle between two starting pitchers who have pitched extremely well this season. Hiroki Kuroda has been off the charts and I've backed him many times, but the secret is he's been only that good on 5 days rest. Here he makes a day start on 4 days rest. He's had his issues against the Sox before and Pedroia and Ortiz are a combined 14-30 against him. Kuroda has an ERA under 1.50 on 5 days rest but when he's on 4 days rest he posts a 4.72 ERA on the road over his 6 road starts. He now faces a Sox team that is #1 OPS vs. RHP, #1 OPS at home and #4 OPS during day games and a starting pitcher on 5 days rest.
John Lackey has solid numbers 8+ K/9 and <2BB/9 and he's delivered at home posting a 2.15 ERA and a solid 3.02 ERA during day games. He also has a 2.43 ERA at home on 5 days rest which is very solid and the Sox are 8-3 in his last 11 on 5days rest. Yankees bats have been hot, but I expect the Sox to take game two as their offense has been better and more consistent this year. Yankees bullpen is also performing poorly and I feel they will need it today, but they post a 7.22 ERA over their last 10 overall.
Martin Perez comes off a complete game and threw more pitchers than he ever has before in 115. Actually that's back to back games with over 100 pitches. He's a very young pitcher and only 165 lbs and I don't think he's ready for that type of work. I see the Mariners bats coming a live here today and it won't take much with King Felix on the mound. FElix has been filthy on the road posting a 2.17 ERA and over the last three years August has been his best month posting a 1.60 ERA over 17 starts. What I really like about this match up though is the fact the Felix is on 5 days rest where he's just been unstoppable this year. In 6 road starts on 5 days rest he's given up 4 ER total! HE posts a 0.90 ERA on the road in those starts. Really all other stats are pretty even between these two over the last 10 games so I really expect the Mariners to be able to get the lead and hold on.
