This is a very desperate Orioles team right now and they send a guy to the mound who has been extremely consistent posting a 3.15 Eat home and a 3.20 ERA during night starts in Wei-Yin Chen. Chen has also pitched well in his career against the Rays in 6 career starts posting a 3.05 ERA. Rays on the other hand are 7-19 in their last 26 as a dog and 5-11 in Jeremy Hellicksons last 16 starts overall.
Hellickson comes into this game posting 5.40 ERA on the road and a 5.57 ERA during night starts. He has struggled big time vs. Chris Davis and Adam Jones and Davis is hot right now 9-20 over the last 7 days. I don't figure for Hellickson to go deep into this game which means they'll likely turn to the bullpen that's ranked 19th in the league. I don't figure him to go deep because this is just the third time in the last two years (1st this year) he's making a start on 4 days rest for a third consecutive game. The results are not good when he's been on 4 days rest posting a 5.67 ERA. He's also got a 5.53 ERA following 100+ pitch efforts so it's clear he just is not the same under these circumstances and having to play the Orioles who are dangerous against RHP is not going to be an easy task as they rank 3rd in OPS. Baltimore is still 35-16 in their last 51 as a home favorite and in my opinion should win this game.
Pittsburgh swept the first two games and the Padres are really at a disadvantage here with Gerritt Cole on the mound who averages 96mph. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 10 and 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 14 games. Cole has been solid on the mound and can easily be compared with Zack Wheeler as he throws the same 4 pitches around the same % of time and speeds. The reason I bring up Wheeler is because the Padres had never faced him and Wheeler went 6 innings allowed 1 ER and struck out 12. Cole has better control, throws harder and has a lower xFIP by nearly a run meaning he's got better stuff. Ian Kennedy on the flip side has struggled and the Pirates have gotten to him of late with a .904 OPS in 84 combined AB. Kennedy walks too many guys and gives up too many home runs and the Pirates who are in a pennant race should take advantage.
