UMASS +2.5 2.2% PLAY
I like Umass in this spot after Tulane has a far way to travel to Massachusetts after a 4 OT game against an instate rival in ULLAF and to top it off they won 41-39. That score is extremely misleading when you think about the fact that Tulane was 0-16 on third down. I donât think I have ever seen a team win a game that was 0-16 on third down. Iâm not overall impressed with Lafayette this year either they lost 45-10 against Boise State in their only step up game. Tulane has not played anyone either and they have a brand new coach staff in Willie Fritz. I love the hire in Fritz from Georgia Southern, but itâs going to be a few years before this team can be dangerous. Fritz brings over his option attack, and he just does not have the weapons to run it. Glen coielette has been awful with 35 rushes for 65 yards at QB, and heâs completing less than 50% of his passes so the UMASS defense really does not have to pay much attention to him. Coielette will get the start despite true freshmen Jonathan Brandley looking like the better runner.
This is the first time Tulane is road chalk in 10 years and I just canât back them. Umass may struggle a little bit early with the option, but they have played three really good teams already in Florida, Boston College and Miss State. They have held their own in the run defense and have come up with some big stops on third down holding opponents to 33% which is impressive given their strength of schedule. They are also very solid in the red zone defense, and Tulane has struggled on third down and in the red zone. The Minutemen have just as good of a defense from what I see and a more balanced offense in the third year of their head coach. They also have a veteran offensive line, and RB Marqise Young is a threat as he ran for 125 yards against Miss State. LSU RB Leonard Fournette needed 28 carries to get to 147 yards against this defense.
