Freddy releases his max rated play of the day which has produced 60% winners in the 2016 season and has gone 79-47 ATS over his career. Tough loss a week ago with Arkansas as the Razorbacks had the game in control at the half, but too many turnover on downs on 1st and goal. This week he backs a team out of the SEC and you won't want to miss his full in depth analysis!


Tennessee has won and covered both of their big games this year where College Game Day covered and the public remembers that. Tennessee already coming into the season was getting a lot of hype, and they finally looked good last week, but against a Florida team dealing with their own issues on the road. Tennessee has struggled and I thought they should have lost the week against Virginia Tech. I was extremely nervous with my teaser last week backing Tennessee, but they won the game arguably the biggest game under Butch Davis which is not saying much. You beat a team you were supposed to as more than a TD favorite.
Georgia on the other hand has had a tough start to the season, but there are hidden signs that this team is better or at least more balanced and harder to prepare for. Georgia took an ass whooping last week against Ole Miss who everyone sees sitting at 2-2, but make no mistakes about it Ole Miss is a Top 10 team under Hugh Freeze. Georgia returning home for their first home game is just what the doctor ordered. Tennessee is well aware they are a road favorite and they also have a showdown the following week against Texas A&M. I just don’t trust Davis in this spot as Tennessee is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS win. This is a huge hang over spot, but even if Tennessee isn’t hung over they should struggle to win this game never mind cover 3.5 points.

With or without Nick Chubb I think Georgia is in good shape they are getting good production out of Brian Herrien and Sony Michel. This is just the second time that Georgia has been a home dog in 10 years. I think to win they have to stop the run and last time I checked Kirby Smart has been very good at defending the run. Georgia’s defense has struggled a couple times vs. the run this season, but that was against teams that had balance with dangerous passing games. North Carolina is a true balanced team and Mitch Trubisky is completing 74.5% of his passes has 10 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Ole Miss Chad Kelly is probably the best QB in the country right now. Josh Dobbs, although a very good running QB can not throw the ball. He’s completing 57% of his passes and yes I saw the drops from a tight team in the first half, but his balls were off the mark time and time again.

Dobbs completed just 59% of his passes a year ago and just 6.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee is far from a big pass offense which is where Georgia is having issues right now. Butch Davis does not seem smart enough to take advantage and probably doesn’t feel like he has to with this strong running game. They run the ball 60% of the time and 65% on the road. I see Georgia’s defense really holding them in check in this one and I think Georgia’s offense could have their best day of the season.

Jacob Eason at home for the first time. He’s shown signs of brilliance against very good defenses in Ole Miss and Missouri on the road. He’s got a big arm and we have seen in the last 3 games Tennessee’s secondary has had issues allowing 5 TD’s to just 1 interception and 740 yards passing. Tennessee’s secondary also without their star player in Cam Sutton who will miss this game they could also be without Jalen-Reeves Maybin.

Georgia has to have revenge on their mind here and Nick Chubb may want to play more than we realize when he got hurt in this game last year. Georgia’s offense is looking better on third down on both sides of the ball against a tough schedule to start the year. Meanwhile Tennessee has actually looked worse in third down offense and defense compared with last year. In a tight game like this I will take the home dog every time.

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