As I mentioned in yesterday's free pick which is archived and stamped in our , the Yankees always seem to answer the bell when it's rung late in the season. I think getting Derek Jeter back is a huge boost to the team because they needed a leader and now they have Andy Pettitte on the mound who is no stranger to coming up big in big moments. All he's done is post a 0.46 ERA over his last three starts, but more importantly he's given up 4+ ER in just 2 of his last 10 starts. He's pitching well and the Orioles key hitters are lefties and it's the reason they are scoring over a run less per 9 vs. LHP than RHP. They are actually ice cold right now with a .188 average vs. LHP over their last 10 and Pettitte has had success limiting them to a .652 OPS in 206 career AB's. Pettitte also knows how to pitch on short rest during day where he posts a 2.73 ERA in his last 23 day starts Meanwhile Wei-Yen Chen is coming off his worst start of his career just 3.5 days ago.
Chen is an extreme fly ball pitcher and we have seen how that translates at Yankee Stadium. I look for Reynolds and Vernon Wells who are more role players at this point in their career to have a big impact with their bats today. The Yankees have 6 HR in just 86AB vs. Chen who has been dominating against lefties but struggles vs. RHB of which the Yankees have 7 of in the line up. Chen struggled down the stretch last season and we saw signs of it in his last start. Yankees bullpen is also a major advantage right now 1.14 ERA L10 games vs. Baltimore's 5.34 L10 games, but in the end I think it goes back to Chen's inability to keep the ball in the park.
Tough time for the Royals but with a lot of baseball to play they are still just 6.5 games out. They throw their ace out there on Sunday in James Shields who has been great on the road this year posting a 2.26 ERA. He's also posted a 1.27 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP since 2011 over 7 starts (3 complete games) vs. the Blue Jays. His last two starts alone have gone the distance in Canada and the one hitter he struggles against (Jose Bautista 9-28 w/ 4HRs vs. Shields) is out of the line up. J.A. Happ is on his 5th start in a row on just 4 days rest and this one comes as a day start after a night so it's less than 4 days. He's already walking 4.85 guys per 9 and I expect more today while the Royals have a huge advantage int he bullpen and they should get the W in a must have game!
