San Jose State is now 20-6 in their last 26 non conference games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Minnesota is 3-0, but there is enough hype surrounding this team to get an inflated line. A closer look and you see Minnesota has gotten by with some luck or just really good timing on defense and special teams. Western Illinois was up in the 3rd quarter, UNLV outplayed them in Minnesota, but was sloppy and New Mexico State is nothing to get excited about and now they face a San Jose State team with an extra week to prepare while they look ahead to their Big Ten schedule against Iowa next week.
San Jose State is not going to make the mistakes that UNLV did, they were +8 TO margin last year and are +2 this year and are one of the least penalized teams. They are also led by an elite QB in David Frales who completed 72% of his passes 33TD and 9 interceptions a year ago and they return 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen. Minnesota is in a tough spot because they are also without their starting CB in junior Brien Boddy-Calhoun. Frales and SJSU offense should find balance as Minnesota did allow 193 yards rushing to UNLV.
Minnesota's offense relies on the running game, but San Jose State returns enough key players up front from a unit that allowed just 3.29 ypc on the road a year ago. This team even held Navy under 100 yards and set up teams in 3rd and long holding them to 29% conversions on third down last year. New year new team, but they return enough back to expect similar things and they held their own against Stanford a great rushing team and they held them to 4.80 ypc. on the road.
