It is hard for anyone to get excited about backing the Jaguars and I completely agree, but being successful in NFL betting is about catching value and taking teams at the right situations and I believe this is one of those. First of all when was the last time a team went back to back weeks on the road with a 20 point swing on the spread? I don't know if it has ever happened but 20 points is a big difference when you are on the road and part of that is due to the fact that the Jaguars have been a doormat and the Colts just went into San Francisco and dominated the entire game.
However, that gives us value because most bettors will only look at the recent game when betting the next and that's why the majority of people are not successful betting especially in the NFL. The other thing I like about this game is the Colts are in one of the classic sandwich games. They just came up with a huge win and nowt hey are due for a let down as they look ahead to a bigger game as they host the Seahawks next week. This is also a division game which means the Jaguars know the Colts well in fact they beat the Colts last year in Indianapolis and I wouldn't be shocked if it happened again. The Jaguars get Gabbert back at QB and Mercedis Lewis and TE and MJD continues to say he's 100% which is a big help. The Colts are 26th in run defense allowing 4.7 ypc so I think the Jaguars will be able to move the ball a bit here.
The Giants were the largest public play last week and the public got beat 38-0 as the Giants played the worst game in recent memory. The Chiefs went on the road to start 3-0 after beating the Eagles in dominating fashion which has given the public the desire to play the Chiefs this week. A closer look at the Chiefs games and you can see how they are 3-0. They had field position advantages because of turnovers and penalties in the Eagles game that any team would win off of and scored just 17 points in their home game against Dallas while beating the Jaguars is nothing to brag about.
The Giants stock is rock bottom and that's usually when teams cover in this league and a big win over a good team is exactly what this Giants team needs to climb out of the hole they are in and they have been notorious for coming up with this exact same win year in and year out. Giants are 7-2-1 ATS int heir last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
