Clayton Kershaw really needs no introduction here, but his 2.14 ERA on the road does. Atlanta has just 1 HR in Kershaw's 4 starts against them, but they have not seen him since 2011. Kershaw has really polished his skills since then and is baseball's most dominant pitcher. The Braves look like their offense is major trouble and they look like they are in panic by leaving Dan Uggla off the roster. Atlanta strikes out far too much and relies on the home run ball. They actually have a losing record when they don't hit a home run. Kershaw is allowing 0.46 HR/9 and 5.8% HR per fly ball. The Dodgers bullpen has been outstanding down the stretch and when you look at the numbers they have been better than the Braves.
We are getting value because Kris Medlen was nasty down the stretch with a 0.40 ERA over his final 3 starts, but he's been facing off against cupcakes. Over his last 5 starts he's faced the Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Marlins and Mets. People forget Medlen was having a down year before his end of year domination. I don't trust pitchers like Medlen in the playoffs and I still don't against the Dodgers. He's allowed 24.1 LD% this season compared with 18.5% last year and his tERA is 4.35 compared with Kershaw at 2.86. Thought the Dodgers are without Ethier and Kemp they still have Puig, Ramirez and Gonzalez which are enough to get them a win in game 1.
