Calvin Johnson is questionable and the Lions offense is beat up. If Johnson plays the Browns have a shut down corner in Joe Haden and a defenese that is top 10 in sack %, opp QB rating, and completion %. Lions rely on the passing game way too much and that's not a good thing going up against the Browns who can also stop the run. They have a big front 4 and their front 7 is one of the best in the game.
Cleveland's main struggles on offense are protecting the QB and running the ball. They do well when given time and have two serious weapons in Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon. Well the Lions are 30th on the road in sack % 27th overall and are ranked 26th in run defense. That means the Browns should be able to run the ball a bit to set up the pass or vice versa. Either way the Browns offense should click even if it's Brandon Weedon back there. Detroit is just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog.
The Texans desperately need a win and I think they get one here today against the Rams. Houston is #1 in sack % and Sam Bradford needs time to be effective which he won't have today. Bradford has yet to prove he can move the ball and score points on a good defense and the Texans can still claim one of the leagues top defenses it's their offense that has killed them. Lucky for the Texans they should be able to get back to the running game today. 25th in run defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry are the Rams. Look for Foster and Ben Tate to carry the load in an easy win.
Saints have been great and the Patriots are still sporting a great record, but the Patriots have been clearly lucky to be where they are. Look for Brady to lean on the run more today as is the Saints weakness which should speed up this game and keep it within reaching distance if the Saints don't have the lead already. The Saints are capable of putting up points especially with Jimmy Graham out there. The Patriots allowed Tony Gonzalez to score 2 TD and bring in 12 of his 14 targets 2 weeks ago. If they can get a lead early the Patriots will be in trouble. Patriots are 31st in the red zone for TD% while the Saints are 8th in sack%, 12th in opposing QB rating and 9th in third down defense. It should be a great game but unless Drew Brees turns the ball over it should be within a TD.
