This will be the first time Western Kentucky's defense faces a dual threat QB as they were lucky enough to miss Kolt Browning who had an injury last week. Terrance Broadway is a dual threat QB who had 145 yards rushing against the Hilltoppers a year ago on just 14 carries. He is paired with a couple of good running backs in Alonzo Harris and Elijah Mcguire who are both averaging well over 5 yards per carry. Broadway also has a 158 QB rating as he's averaging 8.8 yards per attempts and has 10 TD's to 4 interceptions. This is every bit of a balanced offense, but it relies on the running game first and that's where they can have success against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky is 86th allowing 4.7 ypc and they've only played traditional running attacks. If there is no threat of a pass they can absolutely stop the run and have done so this year, but add in a mobile QB that can also pass and I think the Rajin Cajuns will be able to move the ball fine and score some points. They are converting 72% of their red zone opportunities into TD's and 48% of their third downs both numbers are better than Western Kentucky's offense.
Western Kentucky should have it's success too. Lafayette has allowed too many passing yards, but I view the Hilltoppers as a one dimensional offense that doesn't know it yet. They came off a ton of passing yards in their last game and broke a record as Brandon Doughy was 24-36 for 370 yards 2 TD's and 1 interception against LA Monroe. Doughty has been really inconsistent and already has 10 interceptions on the season to go with just 7 TD's. The Hilltoppers are -9 in turnover margin while Lafayette is +6. Lafayette also is very disciplined averaging just 3.7 penalties per game on the road compared to Western Kentucky who is nearly at 7. I just think 4.5 points is far too many for a balanced offense facing a defense that struggles to stop the run. Western Kentucky will move the ball fine, but Lafayette's defense is very good in the red zone only allowing 50% TD's and their biggest weakness which has been special teams coverage will not haunt them tonight as Western Kentucky has one of the worst return games in the country.
