Nearly 70% of the public are on the Cinci Bearcats yet the spread is dropping. I've bet on this Memphis team before and they are much better than their 1-5 record indicates and should win this game. Both teams have top defenses which we will get into more in a second, but Cinci who is ranked 7th in total defense has faced the following offensive teams ranked 121st, 117th, 123rd, 76th, 83rd and 124th. They may have had the easiest schedule to date when you look at the offenses they have faced. Memphis on the other hand ranked 13th has faced 64th, 24th, 45th, 71st, 97th, and 16th ranked offenses.
Memphis defense is legit they are 12th in yards per play, 8th in run defense allowing just 3.1 ypc which will be key against a Cinci rushing offense that is hit or miss, and 23rd in opposing QB rating. They held Houston to 247 yards which was 228 yards less than their season average. That's the same Houston that just went on the road and beat up on Rutgers who was coming off a bye and the same Houston that took BYU to the wire and put up 40+ points on a top 25 defense. They also held UCF to 274 yards which was 161 yards under their total. UCF also already beat the AAC's best team and did so on the road beating Louisville on a Friday night. Memphis should have beaten both Houston and UCF, but costly turnovers and inability to put it in the end zone were the reasons why they did not. Memphis luckily plays a team that turns the ball over just as much as them. Cinci is 110th with 2.5 turnovers per game on the year. Those are elite teams and Cincinnati just is not and they've been bad on the road. They barely got by Miami Ohio 14-0 which is the worst team in FBS. They lost to a bad South Florida team as a 10.5 point favorite and they lost at Illinois 17-45 as a -7.5 favorite. It's not like Illinois is turning the corner either as they lost 44-3 this past weekend to Michigan State.
The good news is we have value on our side because people have some what forgot about how bad Cinci has looked this year because they are off back to back wins against Uconn and Temple two more bad teams. It helps that Memphis record is 1-5 and Vegas knows they can collect big time by putting a low point spread as every average joe will come playing on Cinci. The spread only dropped because sharp money is on Memphis and Vegas wants more money on Cinci because they gamble too and feel they have an advantage with Memphis and perception that Cinci is the better team.
