Literally nobody believes in Arkansas right now after they were out scored 134-17 in their last three games. All three came against the 3 best defenses in SEC, but now Arkansas comes off the bye playing a team that has just too much confidence after beating Texas A&M on the road and improving to 7-1 on the season in Auburn. Public is betting Auburn 70% of the time in this spot yet the line has been going the other way. I think there is value on Arkansas especially coming off the bye having an extra week to prepare for an Auburn team that is flawed. Auburn is one dimensional on offense and defense struggling bad to stop the pass and pass the ball. Even though Arkansas has been better running the ball I think they will find success passing on Saturday.
Arkansas passing offense is not as bad as it's looked. Brandon Allen's stats look awful but he was battling a shoulder injury for most of the year but has looked better as of late. He was part of 282 yards and 3 TD's vs. A&M at home and I believe Arkansas shoudl be able to continue running the ball effectively. Auburn has had issues stopping the run at times this year and has not really faced a team that's willing to grind out a game. Arkansas had 3.83 ypc at Florida and 4.23 ypc at Alabama and should average over 5 yards per carry on Saturday. On the flip side Arkansas should load the box to stop Auburn who is more predictable running the ball 66% of the time. At least when Arkansas passes they can protect their QB allowing just 6 sacks on the year as the offensive line has played extremely well. Auburn is 66th in pass rush while Arkansas is 18th.
In the end it will be Arkansas getting an early lead at home and using their pass rush with DE Chris Smith and Trey Flowers along with some blitzing from their linebackers. This is Bielema's kind of game and it falls on senior day off a bye with a team at 3-5 that is capable of going to a bowl and
