This is an interesting match up between two teams that are ranked in the top 5 in rushing play %. In that aspect it's a really easy game to break down, because Air Force will run the ball 79% of the time and New Mexico will run it 74% of the time. New Mexico has done a better job with 6.3 yards per carry against an average run defense ranked 81st, while Air Force sits at 23rd in the county 4.9 ypc, but 5.0 on the road against an average run defense ranked 74th. Both offenses have not faced many solid run defenses, but the strength of schedule is definitely on the side of Air Force who had to face Notre Dame, Army and Boise while New Mexico's different opponents are Pitt, UNLV, and TX San Antonio thus far. The critical part to a dominant running game plan is converting on third down and over the last 4 years New Mexico has proven they can run the ball against Air Force and some times even better, but they have not been able to convert on third down. They are only converting 37.5% of their third downs this year, 34% at home and have converted 35% in the last 4 match ups with Air Force. Meanwhile Air Force has converted at 56% in the last 4 match ups vs. New Mexico and has converted 52% of their third downs on the road. Air Force is just better at stopping a one dimensional offense.
To prove it I looked in detail at the rushing defense numbers. Before I get to all the stats that will get you excited about this match up let me point out the one common opponent that these two teams had in their own building. Both teams played Utah State at home with a bunch of other mixed common opponents in between home/away. Utah State average 4.7 ypc vs. Air Force with the threat of star QB Chuckie Keeton on the field. New Mexico allowed 8 ypc at home vs. Utah State without the threat of Chuckie Keeton. Air Force also rushed for more yards than New Mexico did against a defense ranked 10th nationally vs. the run. New Mexico is just that bad at stopping the run ranked 122nd allowing over 6 yards per carry at home. They've faced an average 55th ranked rushing offense with 3 teams falling in the top 30 so you could say they have had a challenging schedule, but Air Force is tougher and they have performed better. Air Force is 94th in stopping the run, but it's 1.5 yards less per carry overall and they've done it against 5 top 30 rushing offenses and an average 37th ranked rushing offense. The Utah State game alone proves Air Force is better at stopping the run. Add in the fact that they are also the better team on third down and I think there is tremendous value on Air Force given how they have dominated this series over recent years winning 5 straight.
With all that said Air Force's running game is just much more challenging to stop and New Mexico has not proven they can win this game even when they do run for 400+ yards (see last year).
