Minnesota is now getting a lot of hype for a one dimensional team that's ranked 6th in rushing play % with 70% of their plays coming as a run. Minnesota has 3 straight wins as they were over a TD under dog. It's no shock they did it against three teams that struggle against stopping the run. Indiana ranked 91st, Nebraska 71st, and Northwestern 61st. Penn State is 49th, but if you take away the Ohio State game they are ranked in the top 15 allowing only 3.14 ypc. Only two teams have rushed for more than 4 yards per carry against Penn State. Both those teams were balanced with a top 10 QB rating. Ohio State ranked 7th and Central Florida ranked 9th. Minnesota just does not have that type of balance at the QB position. That should set things up for Penn State to win this game and stop the run by holding Minnesota under 4 ypc.
Minnesota is 1-2 when they are held under 4 ypc and should be 0-3 with a lucky OT win over Northwestern. Minnesota will have a hard time on third down with their offense as Penn State is 35% in holding teams on third down, but a deeper look and they have held every one dimensional offense that they have faced (5 total) under 30% on third down. All three teams that beat Penn State had a solid running game, but they also had the threat of a passing game and Minnesota does not.
Penn State on the other hand is perfectly balanced with a 51.30% running play percentage. What is hidden in Minnesota's winning streak is their inability to stop the run. They allowed over 6 ypc in back to back games and have allowed over 5 yards per carry in conference play. Penn State's Bill Belton is averaging 5.22 ypc and is coming on strong with 201 yards last week. The thing with Penn State is that they can also pass leading the Big Ten with 253 yards passing per game behind freshmen Christian Hackenberg who is not playing like a freshmen and was the most coveted QB recruit a year ago. He has an NFL WR in Allen Robinson that will be the best receiver Minnesota has faced all year and when teams wanted to throw on Minnesota they've been able to with San Jose and Michigan putting up monster games.
This is just a bad match up for Minnesota a team that has been over achieving. Penn State is as healthy as they have been all year and have solid line backers and corners that can cover led by Jordan Lucas. Overall Penn State is just more balanced on both sides and the overall better team. We get value here because of what Minnesota just did to vegas lines.
Okay, Auburn's stock has never been higher while Tennessee's has never been lower and that automatically gives us value in this line. This is Auburn's 2nd road game in a row after they just faced a physical opponent. They are far too one dimensional running the ball 70% of the time as it seems QB Nick Marshall has some type of shoulder injury too. That still won't help Tennessee's rushing defense which is ranked very low, but a closer look and you realize that Tennessee has faced some of the very best rushing teams in Alabama, Oregon, Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina. Auburn is more one dimensional then all 5 of those teams. I'm not suggesting that Tennessee can stop Auburn's rushing offense, but they can certainly play to win this game. Remember they took Georgia to the wire, and they beat South Carolina at home. I'd argue both of those teams are better than Auburn.
The real key to beat Auburn is to run the ball. Arkansas showed last week it can be done easily as they put up 222 rushing yards, but made too many mistakes. Tennessee is backed by the league's best offensive line and are averaging 5.41 ypc at home. Auburn will also struggle to get to the QB, ranked 64th in sack %, TN rarely gives up sacks and giving Joshua Dobbs time to throw will be a dangerous proposition. Tenn is +8 in turnover margin at home and I think they should be able to move the ball just fine while their defense steps up enough to give Auburn troubles. Butch Jones is a very good coach and he's challenged his team this week, and the excitement of upsetting a top 10 team is there. Auburn is not that good even their road win against Texas A&M was flawed when Manziel missed two series because of his shoulder.
