Miami's secondary has faced passing offenses ranked 122, 72, 74, 46th which just simply does not impress me. Francois was able to carve up this secondary in the second half and I think Tribusky and his receiving weapons will have a great game here.
With that said this game should feature limited possessions when you factor in Miami is dead last with 59 plays per game and North Carolina is 115th. I do think Miami is a better team overall, but there simply won't be enough plays to showcase this. Miami also will keep it on the ground in my opinion keeping this game down in scoring. I have the game at 23-28 in favor of Miami, but I factor in the extra points we get for the final last week for North Carolina. Miami off their loss to Florida State has typically struggled.
They lost in devastating fashion on a missed extra point. Despite leading 13-0 int hat game they were actually out gained 408 to 276 yards. Florida State's defense which was unable to make second half adjustments against a ton of teams was able to do so in the second half a week ago against Miami. There is just too much value here with the points and the dog is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
