NC State is 25-12 ATS in their last 39 home games and have played well this year at home. The real strength of this NC State team has been the defense and in particular the passing defense which fits into what East Carolina likes to do. NC State has only allowed 3 passing TD's at home and have 8 interceptions. Their recent losses were not as bad as the final scores indicate and they have been in striking distance in the 4th quarter and should be against East Carolina on Saturday. NC State has already gone 0-3 against in state teams this year and they should be fully motivated to win this game to avoid the 0-4 embarrassment.
East Carolina is likely looking ahead as this game does not mean much. Their game next week at Marshall means everything as they'll be fighting for a chance to go to the Conference USA Championship. When you look at East Carolina's schedule it's really been an easy go. They are still a one dimensional offense that is not as good on this side of the ball as in years past, but are much better on defense. In the end I don't think this offense is that elusive as they are 0-2 against the two top 30 pass defenses they have faced. NC State is ranked 21st in opposing QB rating and that should keep them in the game. NC State is still fighting for something and I think they come up with a win.
Notre Dame has won more games against Top 25 teams than anyone else right now as they are 3-0 beating Arizona State, Michigan State and USC. Notre Dame comes off a bye week and have plenty of seniors going in their last home game. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off a bye and are fighting for a better bowl game. Considering BYU stands to gain nothing but another W in the win column the motivation and preparation are on Notre Dame's side. BYU already accepted a spot in the Fight Hunger Bowl and have struggled on the road this year.
Their 3 road games were against Houston, Wisconsin, Virginia where they went 1-2, and they came up with a big win at Utah State who lost Chuckie Keeton. Their win at Houston only came by 1 point where they lost to Virginia and Wisconsin. Traveling east for this mountain team is not something they are very good at. For Notre Dame the difference is in Tommy Rees. The 3 losses have come against elite pass defenses and 2 on the road. Oklahoma's pass defense is far better than BYU's and BYU can not come close to getting to the QB ranking 96th in sack % where Notre Dame is ranked 4th in protecting their QB. I believe with time to throw Rees will make the smart decisions leading to an Irish victory unlike what we saw on Sons Of Anarchy this week.
