I like the Cougars here tonight in what should be a very competitive game. I think the home field advantage for Boise is not as strong as it used to be and they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. BYU 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. the Mountain West. BYU has had a very challenging schedule and are looking forward to their bye, but they do have an extra day of rest and prep. Compared to Boise State who played Saturday.

Actually that’s really big because Boise State relies heavily on running back Jeremy McNichols and he just carried the ball 40 times on Saturday. The last time he carried the ball 30+ times he struggled against New Mexico’s run defense. I do see Boise chucking the ball around a lot tonight, but BYU’s pass defense has been very good this year with an interception in every game. Brett Rypien has played well, but the two times he faced good defenses in the top 30 he threw 2 TD’s to 3 INT’s. Last year against BYU he had 1 TD and 3 INT’s. The strength of schedule is a key factor here when you look at the fact that Boise has not faced a tough schedule by any means 72nd ranking compared to 24th.

BYU’s key here is to run the ball with Jamal Williams come up with 3rd and short and they will wear down opposing defenses. Their offensive line has gained an average 20lbs in average weight since last year and it’s definitely showing in their running style. In 4th quarters and beyond they are +45 points while Boise has really struggled late in games. So the question is can BYU run the ball? I think they can when looking at Boise’s 45th ranking in run defense they just got done allowing 566 yards rushing in their last 2 games. Jamal Williams and the occasional run by Taysom Hill will be hard for them to stop. This is a completely different team than last year that Boise State is facing. Thus harder to prepare for. BYU is bigger and stronger on both sides of the line and I think the biggest difference is the strength of this running game.

The concern for me here is BYU’s secondary, but Boise also has holes in their secondary and I think it helps that Boise State won’t have as much balance with McNichols not able to run the ball 30+ times in this game. BYU is also very good at stopping the run since they got their star LB back and they have been able to force turnovers in the passing game. BYU also has an edge on special teams ranking 27th compared to Boise who ranks 90th. That could be worth a few points in tonight’s game. BYU in their 3 losses to UCLA, Utah, and West Virginia have lost by a combined score of 7 points. That tells me this coaching staff is very good they are able to look at an opposing team’s strengths and weaknesses and come up with a very good game plan. They have faced a lot of good teams this year who vary in play style. I don’t think Boise State scares them and I think they could come out of this with an upset win.

Where to find Freddy?