Buffalo will play their game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, home of the Bills on Friday with a chance to face off against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship on the line. I believe the wrong team is favored here based on perception, because Bowling Green was expected to get back to the MAC Championship, but nobody saw this Buffalo thing happening and now they get a major game at home in an NFL Stadium where it's not easy to play.
Let's get the total out of the way. Both teams possess dominant defenses in MAC play with run first options. Both teams are solid on third down defense and both teams don't turn the ball over. So I expect this to go under the total. Especially since a shot at Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship is on the line which always makes for a better defensive performance.
Buffalo opened the season at Baylor and at Ohio State. It does not get any more difficult than that. They also went on the road to face Toledo as their third toughest game. Meanwhile Bowling Green had Toledo at home and traveled to Indiana and Miss State. SOS on the side of Buffalo and they also have the two best players in this game. Brandon Oliver is a beast and while Bowling Green has been a rock against the run they are allowing 4.48 ypc on the road. Buffalo is running the ball impressively in conference play averaging over 5 ypc, which is better than Bowling Green's rushing offense of 4.87. Buffalo is also defending the run better in conference play and is just near impossible to run on at home allowing just 2.60 ypc. It also helps if you have a threat of throwing the ball.
Buffalo absolutely has that in Joe Licata who has 21 TD to 6 interceptions which are again better than Matt Johnon's 17 and 6. The biggest difference however will come along the offensive line where Bowling Green has had major issues ranking 119th in pass protection allowing over 10% of Johnson's drop backs to result in a sack. Buffalo is 3rd in the nation and have an aggressive front led by NFL prospect Khalil Mack. Buffalo is very good at protecting Licata ranking 19th in pass protection. This will be the difference in the game in my opinion, but it also does not hurt to know that Buffalo also has the advantage in TO margin, red zone TD%, on offense and defense, and they are better in conference play in third down defense holding opponents to only 27% conversions.
