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I’m all over TCU and I am even comfortable with them at +6 as I think they may even get the outright upset. Gary Paterson is 12-1 straight up, and 13-0 ATS after a bye week. The key difference for them after a bye week is defense. They allowed just 10 points and a 41% completion rate to West Virginia last year following their bye week in the 40-10 victory. This TCU team is flying under the radar right now in my opinion. West Virginia is getting far too much credit for their win against Texas Tech. Patrick Maholmes is definitely injured and that’s a big reason why they held them to 17 points. The week before they were lucky to beat Kansas State at home. Now in comes another great coach and I think TCU could pull the upset.

TCU getting a ton of value here because the last memory everyone has of them is they nearly lost to Kansas. They struggled last year against Kansas (winning 23-17) and the following week they went on the road to face Oklahoma and lost by 1 point without their star QB and WR. The game against Kansas really does not concern me here. TCU is the first team that West Virginia has faced with an offense that can beat you running the ball and passing the ball. Kenny Hill gets plenty of shit, but he’s got 2,142 yards passing in 6 games already and he’s also a threat to run. West Virginia’s defense has shown vulnerabilities vs. the run this year as well as the pass. People forget this team replaced 9 defensive starters when the season began. They haven’t faced any dominating offenses in my opinion and their own offense is nothing to get excited about.

West Virginia’s key last year in their wins vs. losses was Skyler Howard. In wins they had a 153 QB rating and in losses a 102 QB rating. Howard has not impressed me he has 3 TD and 3 INT’s vs. FBS opponents this year. He looked great against Youngstown State. TCU can bring a pass rush like nobody else he’s seen this year. TCU ranks 22nd in sack %, and they haven’t faced a top 60 unit. This defense held him to 41% completion rating and 160 yards passing with a 78 QB rating (a season low). Howard has faced some of the worst pass defenses in the nation. TCU is better than their ranking shows, they have a good pass rush, and they have had to face some pretty elite passing offenses in Arkansas and Oklahoma whom in my opinion are both top 25 teams. At the end of the day without factoring in strength of schedule I have this game as a 29-28 in favor for West Virginia. I think TCU has an excellent shot at pulling the upset even though they are on the road. They have an edge in coaching and have owned this match up and off a bye you can’t go wrong backing Gary Paterson. West Virginia often gets inflated lines after they look good and they are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a game of 450 + total yards in their previous game.
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