To me this is far too many points to be giving to Air Force. I have thi game as a 36-27 game on neutral field and Hawaii has played extremely well since switching the offense over to Dru Brown in the last 2.5 games. He has completed 63.9% of his passes for 6 TD and 1 INT. The running game with Brown has also gotten better averaging 239 yards per game over their last 3 games. Overall Hawaii is much improved this season. They were 6.5 point under dogs at home last year and lost 58-7 to Air Force. I think Air Force is a bit down this year and I think Hawaii is a bit better. I have this game being off by 6 points and that’s enough for me to be a buyer on the Warriors.

It’s also worth noting that Air Force who is 80th in plays per game, Hawaii 109th in plays per game should keep the total down giving us even better value on the large dog. Air Force has been really good on defense, but Hawaii is top 50 in points per play. Air Force has given up 80 points combined in their last two games. Hawaii can pick up yards in the passing game and the running game. Air force will get their yardage there is no doubt about it, but I like a couple of x factors in this game.

Air Force has not been as good in the red zone. Just 62.5% red zone TD%, and 75% allowed on defense compare that with Hawaii who comes in at 78%, and 57% on defense. Both teams have had similar strength of schedules although I would argue Hawaii’s has been much more challenging with Arizona, California, and Michigan along with tough traveling spots. Air Force played Navy and that’s about it. Oh, Air Force who is -1 TO margin has been extremely lucky too recovering 73% of fumbles in games played. That can’t possibly continue.


Oregon State has a ton of injuries including both of their QB’s, but that’s not really the strength of this team which is their RB. Of course they are missing their top RB as well, but I they do have alternates that have run well this season. Oregon State does a few things well that Washington have either not seen or strugged with this year.
First Oregon State runs the ball well at over 5 yards per carry they rank 22nd in the country. This will be just the third time Washington faces an offense ranked top 70 in rushing offense. This should slow the game down quite a bit in my opinion. The two times Washington faced such offenses they gave up 21 and 28 points. Arizona who does not have a particularly capable QB ran the ball for over 300 yards on Washington.

The next things is Washington has not faced a top 60 passing defense all year. Oregon State very good against the pass, but not so good against the run. I see Washington running the ball and getting out of this game looking ahead to their game on the road against Utah in what will be a very challenging game for this team. 36.5 points is a ton of points to work with when you consider Rutgers got 25 here to begin the season and Idaho got 36.5. Oregon State is much improved and I think they will show it in this game. This is also an extremely low total so taking the points in this game is even more tempting.

Where to find Freddy?