Everyone is talking about the weather like San Diego State can't play in the cold and Buffalo can. However, diving into the stats more I see a Buffalo team that really struggled whenever they stepped up in competition. Their schedule was super easy as they faced the 5 worst teams in the MAC that combined for a 4-44 record while only facing 2 of the top 4 which they lost both in dominating fashion. Buffalo have some stars including Khalil Mack who is going to play at the next level, but San Diego State is just a better overall team.
San Diego State is very good at stopping the run ranking 23rd in yards allowed and yards per carry. Buffalo feasted on bad run defenses. They beat Uconn ranked 22nd vs. the run, but lets be honest until the end of the year Uconn was the worst team in the league. The other 6 wins came against an average 104th ranked run defense. With Buffalo everything starts with being able to run the ball to set up the pass. They run the ball 56% of the time and they averaged 4.94 ypc in their wins and 1.99 in their losses. San Diego State can stop the run which transitions well in the cold weather. Buffalo on the other hand was only ranked 59th vs. the run and San Diego State has a quality back in Adam Muema.
As good as Buffalo's defense was specifically in the red zone another look proves they just feasted on bad competition. Whenever they had to step up against a decent offense they were not able to perform and that's what San Diego State has going for them. The weather won't be too bad at 35 degrees and this will be on the blue turf a field San Diego State is very familiar with they actually shocked Boise here last year as a +16 under dog. San Diego State is a very good road team and their defense will benefit going up against a more traditional offense. Considering they play in the MAC where there are about 5 different offenses it gets very challenging for any team to play good defense, but San Diego State has. I'm taking the points with a team that is better on both sides of the ball.
